Latest ICG report on Gaza

Gaza/Jerusalem/Brussels, 19 March 2008: The policy of squeezing Gaza and isolating Hamas has not worked. A new approach is needed if violence is to end and a viable peace process is to be promoted.

Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, analyses the situation in the Strip today and explores the options facing Israel, the Palestinians and the international community. Though difficult, a different way forward is imaginable: a mutual ceasefire in Gaza; a credible international effort to prevent arms smuggling from Egypt into Gaza; and an opening of Gaza’s border crossings to alleviate Palestinian suffering. At the same time, efforts toward intra-Palestinian reconciliation are needed.

“The policy of isolating Hamas and Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired”, says Nicolas Pelham, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst in Jerusalem. “The population’s suffering has only increased its dependence on its rulers”.

Since Hamas assumed full control of Gaza in June 2007, the already tight sanctions imposed following its January 2006 electoral victory have been tightened further. Israel curtailed cross-border traffic. The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority has done its part to cut off Gaza and prevent the normal functioning of government. The international community – the Arab world included – has been at best passive.

If trends continue, the worst is imaginable: increased firing of rockets against Israeli towns and cities as well as the resumption of bombings and attacks inside Israel; intensified Israeli military incursions, targeted assassinations and attacks on key installations; the collapse of the peace process; the discrediting of pragmatic Palestinian leaders; and, potentially, the conflict’s spread to the West Bank or Lebanon.

“The worst is not yet inevitable”, says Robert Malley, Director of Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program. “But avoiding it depends on Fatah and Hamas beginning the process of reconciliation; a ceasefire agreement that allows Gazans and Israelis near the border to pursue normal lives; and the international community at last playing a constructive part in encouraging the parties to achieve these goals”.